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i let mine warm up for 15 to 20 minutes before I drive it in the mornings. I live in canada of course ima do that its friggen cold in the mornings lol.
as for your theory it means nothing until you actually find your water leak but its deff not a thermostat or coolant res. if it was a dead water pump you wouldn't be losing coolant yet ( until you can see it coming out of it ) get a coolant tester that can check for leaks we have one at our work and it pushes air ( that you pump by hand ) and it will normally tell you where your leaking as it pushes the coolant through the system
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