Here's something you Calgary fans might find interesting from my friend Ron who runs a sports gambling forum
http://www.postingforum.com:
The 2004 Stanley Cup Playoffs
By Ron Raymond
With the exception of the Nashville vs. Detroit series, every other series is a coin flip and anybody can win on any teams home ice. In this new era of hockey, home ice means absolutely nothing, as today’s game is so defensively wound, you need a shoe horn these days to get through the neutral zone!
When approaching the Stanley Cup playoffs, you can throw offensive statistics right out the window, because they mean absolutely nothing in the playoffs, as it’s all about defense and goaltending. In fact, 3 of the biggest categories I check before the playoffs are teams goals against on 5 on 5 situations, 1 goal games wins and goaltending. If you look back at last years stats of teams who had the most 1 goal game wins, you just have to look at both Stanley Cup finalist, New Jersey and Anaheim. Both teams had 24 one goal game wins and both teams had hot goaltenders in the playoffs. Which brings us to this season.
I can’t believe we don’t have one 50-goal scorer this year and one of the top 3 scorers in the league is in the playoffs, Jarome Iginla in Calgary. In fact, Calgary is my choice this year to win the Stanley Cup, as they’ve had 20 one goal games wins and have a hot goaltender in Kiprusoff. Plus, they’ve allowed the least 5 on 5 goals against with Boston with 105.
Here’s my recap of Round 1:
New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay
Selection: Tampa Bay in 7 games.
Keys to selection: My first reaction was to take the Islanders, as they’ve owned the Lightning in head to head series, but the Lighting have some talented young guns and they are very tough in front of that rowdy home crowd. New York has some good gritty players like Peca and Asham, but they just don’t have the goaltending to get them to the next round.
Montreal vs. Boston
Selection: Boston in 6 games
Keys to selection: Montreal will have the advantage in goal, but the Bruins have the bigger defenseman to pound the smaller Habs forward. Boston has 22 one goal games wins this season, second most to St.Louis, but they are unproven in nets. I think the Bruins will get by to the next round, but they’ll meet Brodeur and if my predictions are bang on and that’s just too much of a task for Raycroft and the Bruins to handle. If Boston should go far in the playoffs, don’t be surprised if they do it on 5 on 5 situations, as they had the least goals against with Calgary in those situations and only allowed 105 goals against.
New Jersey vs. Philadelphia
Selection: New Jersey in 6 games
Keys to selection: The Flyers remind me of the Atlanta Braves, they do well in regular season and until they have a first class goaltender like a Martin Brodeur, I don’t see this unit going anywhere. Bobby Clarke has stated many times, there’s Brodeur and then there’s everybody else in nets in this league and if he’s thinking this way, they’ve already lost. My only concern with New Jersey is the lack of 20 goal scorers, they only had 2 this season, so guys like Friesen, Lagenbrunner and Gomez need to pick it up, but when you have the Brodeur factor, you have that wiggle room.
Ottawa vs. Toronto
Selection: Toronto in 7 games
Keys to selection: Same thing as the Brodeur situation, the Senators are mentally blocked on thinking they can’t beat the Leafs and their record in 1 goal games this season was a horrible 9 and 11 for a winning percentage of .346. I think when they let Magnuss Ardvedsson go to Vancouver this year, they lost their best defensive forward and it bit them in the butt all season on the PK. Belfour is by far the more consistent goaltender and Lalime is just not ready to make that next step in the goaltending ranks. I think it’s an early exit for the Senators and Martin and Lalime will be both gone in the off-season.
Nashville vs. Detroit
Selection: Detroit in 5 games
Keys to selection: I was going to make a bold prediction on Nashville to beat Detroit, but Dave Lewis learned his lesson last year and with 1 season under his belt as a head coach, I can assure you an early exit will not happen again!
St.Louis vs. San Jose
Selection : St.Louis in 7 games
Keys to selection: At first glance, I had San Jose penciled in to win this series, but when I started to look into the categories such as 1 goal game wins and realized St.Louis has been involved in 24 one goal game wins this season. In fact, 24 one goal game wins is the most this year by any team in the league, and I realized this could have an impact for them in the playoffs, as 1-goal games are just like playoff games in reality. However, I don’t think they have the goaltending to make it to the Stanley Cup, but I do see them winning the first 2 rounds
Calgary vs. Vancouver
Selection: Calgary in 5 games
Keys to selection: The only thing I wish Calgary had more of was 2 more 20 goals scorers, but I still feel they have the best team in the Western Conference to win the Stanley Cup. Kiprusoff is having a Vezina type season, something like Giguere had last season and they have allowed the least 5 on 5 goals against with 105 along with Boston. Plus, they’ve been involved in 20 one goal games wins this season and could have a few soft first two round matchup series against Vancouver who have no goaltending and Dallas who can’t win on the road. Flames are my pick to win the Stanley Cup!
Dallas vs. Colorado
Selection: Dallas in 7 games
Keys to selection: Dallas will win this series because of goaltending and they’ll need to find ways to win on the road if they intend to go deep into the playoffs. Turco has 10 shutouts this season and Colorado have too many finesse players and not enough sand paper type players to grind out tough wins in those ugly tough hitting games. Plus, as much as Lacroix did go out and get Salo at the trade deadline, it won’t be enough for him to get to the next round. Sorry Pete, but Ray Bourque won’t save you this year!
In a nutshell, when you have a regular season with no 50-goal scorers, that’s all you need to know what type of playoff you are going to see the next few months. Plus, the team who gets the best goaltending and the most 5 on 5 goals for will go deep into the playoffs.
Final Four Selections:
Western Conference Finals: St.Louis vs. Calgary
Eastern Conference Finals: Toronto vs. New Jersey
Stanley Cup Finals
Calgary vs. New Jersey:
Calgary wins in 6 games
Enjoy the playoff folks!
Ron Raymond
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